Riding on Ukraine war, NATO gets a new lease of life

Riding on Ukraine war, NATO gets a new lease of life
The NATO Summit on 29-30 June in Madrid followed close on the heels of the G-7. In some ways it overshadowed the normally leading G7 Summit. Amid the Ukraine war there has been a securitisation of the agenda, particularly in Europe.
This move from functional issues to putting security first, even if there are economic and climate costs, is the reason why NATO has a new life. There were nearly 30 countries at the NATO summit, an unprecedented number. Significantly for the first-time partners from the Indo-Pacific, who are not NATO members but US allies, joined the summit.
These included Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. NATO seeks to expand its vision of how security should be maintained in the Indo-Pacific as well. This of course comes with riders because despite nearly two decades of involvement in Afghanistan, the NATO operation wound up rather quickly, abruptly and without adequate consultation with its allies and partners.
Many European countries feel that there remains inadequate consultation on the securitisation that NATO brings to the agenda. The United States, however, believes that what Russia has done in Ukraine merits overt and determined action for which Europe must fall in line. This has led to three important streams of action.
First, the Franco-German bid through their domestic coalitions to have a more independent, Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union has now reached an impasse. The European countries seeking strategic autonomy have simply followed the US lead, some with reluctance, others with enthusiasm. Second, the cleavage between Eastern Europe and former Soviet allies and the mainstream EU members was already straining due to the inability of some to abide by EU's growing regulations.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has given many of them a chance to come out loudly as opponents of Russia, supporters of NATO and thus bury their EU contradictions for the time being. The third stream has been those European efforts to save on defence expenditure by engaging Russia through energy for security has collapsed. While bigger EU countries still remain committed to talking to Russia, they have all been pushed into taking on the responsibility of spending up to 2 per cent of GDP on defence which has been a consistent NATO demand.
Germany for one had been resisting it, but has now agreed to do so despite its own tenuous economic situation. A White House briefing said that President Joe Biden reaffirmed unwavering commitment to the trans-Atlantic relationship. Undoubtedly, US forces in Europe, particularly in East Europe, will increase and American arms will replace Soviet era arms in the East European countries.
The NATO Summit passed a new strategic concept which is the first since 2010. This describes how the alliance will deal with challenges to security in the next decade. It corroborates the transition according to the NATO 2030 agenda, which was adopted at the 2021 summit.
It defines NATO's main role as deterrence, defence, crisis prevention and management through cooperative security. Interestingly, it deals with the security implications of cyber, climate change, and human security as part of the protection of civilians during conflict. Besides the expansion of NATO to a stronger presence in Eastern Europe, it is also increasing its visible presence in the Baltics.
In this it has had a windfall with two neutral members of Europe, Sweden and Finland deciding to abandon that neutrality and join NATO. Thus, all the five Nordic countries will now be NATO members. Turkey, the main outlier mainly because it has problems with the European Union.
(Where it remains a candidate country since 1987). has tried to play a mediatory role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis without success, but has provided weapons and gained brownie points with NATO. The number of US forces will go up by 20 per cent to 120,000 troops with new battle groups and naval deployments as well.
A new permanent corps headquarters forward command will be established in Poland, a rotational brigade in Romania and multi-role operational groups in the Baltics. Spain would host a larger number of US naval ships and the UK will host additional two squadrons of aircraft; similar ideas are being discussed with Germany and Italy. A trilateral agreement between Turkey, Sweden and Finland on 28 June paved the way for Turkey to remove its veto.
It was perturbed by Sweden and Finland allowing free movement to Kurdish rebel; groups. Turkey saw itself as a contributor to NATO ahead of many others and wondered why security for all did not include its interests. Now it appears satisfied to allow the Swedish and Finnish applications.
Once the accession talks with both countries are completed, the US will need congressional approval and that remains a question mark. The US was happy that for eight continuous years, non-US allies and allies spent above the NATO benchmark of 2 per cent of GDP for defence. Nine allies have crossed this threshold, 19 plan to do so by 2024 and five allies are making commitments to be there.
In 2022, NATO would have spent a further $350 billion on defence in real terms since 2014. This securitisation and diversion of economic resources towards common security and defence is a big change and will reduce the development funds available in Europe for their own economic recovery as well as for their international commitments. Before the summit, NATO hosted its first ever high-level dialogue on climate change, and its related security implications.
The US has been pushing this along with cyber security and preserving its technological edge. NATO, thus, recognises climate change as an overarching challenge of our time, that will enhance the risk to security as global warming takes place. It seeks a basic transition of NATO's approach to security and wants to make NATO as a leading partner in adapting to climate change.
An Innovation Fund will invest €1 billion over the next 15 years in startups developing dual-use emerging technologies including AI. The 2022 strategic concept named Russia as the most significant and direct threat to NATO security but addresses China as well in a new initiative. NATO agreed to continue its fight against terrorism, to discuss food crisis caused by the invasion of Ukraine and new support packages for partner countries Mauritania and Tunisia.
The US sought and received from NATO a reaffirmation of strong commitment from allies to collective defence and a transatlantic partnership that united NATO. A similar commitment to the rules-based international order and common values of liberty, human rights, democracy and the rule of law was easier to state. A few years ago, it was possible for Europe and the US to unite over climate, trade and other functional issues.
Due to differences, the TTIP never took place, the US reneged on the Kyoto Protocol and has now only returned to discussing climate change. While it remains weak on trade, climate change and the like, the US always loves the security dimension and with the Ukraine crisis it has strengthened NATO and brought Europe behind. In the Indo Pacific it secured the support of its foremost allies.
PMs of Australia and New Zealand skipped the CHOGM in Rwanda to travel once and attend NATO instead. ***Also ReadDriven by hubris and moral certitude, West harms itself, triggers economic crisis and hands Putin a 'win'Too close for comfort! How Sweden, Finland joining NATO will impact Russia’s relations with WestRussia and China slam NATO after alliance raises alarmExplained: Why Russia is upset with Lithuania and the relevance of NATO’s Article 5Explained: How the upcoming NATO summit plans to keep Russian aggression in checkInevitability of Ukraine war and the dubious role played by Western leaders***Among others who participated were the leaders of Finland and Sweden who are now invited to NATO, Georgia and Ukraine. The President of the European Council and European Commission and the foreign ministers of Jordan, and Mauritania and the Defence Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The European Union filter of meeting certain standards is not applied by NATO, where a desire to criticise Russia is often enough to obtain association. The Summit declaration had no mention of China which was actually confined to the strategic concept where there are two paragraphs devoted to China, its ambitions and coercive policies are seen as challenges to NATO's interest. Chinese cyber operations, disinformation and confrontational rhetoric are seen as troublesome.
The control that China has over critical technologies, industrial sector, infrastructure, as well as strategic materials and supply chains. is sought to be challenged. Chinese determination to use the rules of the international order to get its own way in space, maritime and cyber domains cause NATO anxiety and now that NATO's chief enemy Russia and China have aligned strategically, NATO feels that it must not ignore China.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said at the press conference: China is not our adversary. But we must be clear-eyed about the serious challenges it represents. At the same time, NATO says that it is open to constructive engagement with the PRC to build mutual security and while Chinese systemic challenges to the trans-Atlantic alliance will be countered, shared values, a rule-based international order and freedom of navigation will be sought to be protected.
The strategic concept is yet very European in its vision. It does not say very much of what needs to be done in the Indo-Pacific, though most of the concerns are ticked in the two-paragraph dealing with China. Its strong reaction is to Russia and as part of that with China.
The Indo-Pacific is clearly mentioned as facing similar challenges. NATO is acquiring a larger persona and trying to recover its identity that had come down with the Berlin Wall and disruption of the USSR. It will need to be more reliable than it was in Afghanistan.
The writer is a former Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia & ASEAN, Ethiopia & the African Union. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here.
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