Most forecasts – conducted by , and – estimate Oregon’s demand for electricity could increase by 50% or even double by 2050. But the state lacks a comprehensive plan to meet the demand. The details of exactly how much new electricity Oregon will need, where it will come from and how much it will cost remain murky. Still, state prognosticators and utility officials agree the grid of the future will have to meet a much higher demand as electrification efforts kick in. This includes and a yet-unknown number of customers who switch from natural gas to electric heating and cooking. Simultaneously, the state’s electric utilities will be racing to shift all of their power to renewables by 2040. Meeting state mandates will require a massive increase of solar and wind energy and battery storage, as well as costly updates to transmission lines. Many of the projections also rely on a quick build-up of offshore wind farms – an industry that doesn’t yet exist in Oregon. In addition to expanding the grid’s capacity, utilities plan to increase reliance on energy efficiency and “demand response” programs to reduce peak energy usage. Energy efficiency includes providing incentives to customers to buy appliances like electric heat pumps, which use much less energy than furnaces and cut the cost of heating, and to reduce energy waste by weatherizing homes. reward residential and commercial customers who reduce their electricity consumption at peak hours or when electricity prices spike. Smart thermostats already shift energy use in some households when energy demand is high. And smart chargers are expected to alleviate demand as electric vehicles become the norm, by automatically shifting vehicle charging from afternoon to night hours. State and utility officials say those shifts, coupled with new power from renewable energy sources, will allow them to serve the tremendous rise in customers. “We are counting on load growth from customer electrification and are confident that we can support both existing and future customers as more residents, cities and counties electrify,” said Allison Dobscha, a spokesperson with Portland General Electric. It’s up to the electric utilities, with oversight and guidance from the state’s Public Utility Commission, to determine the exact mix of renewable projects. But Oregon — unlike neighboring California or Washington — lacks a clear pathway for its energy transformation, said Amy Schlusser, a senior energy policy analyst at the Oregon Department of Energy. “Right now, the state does not have a single definitive analysis that shows exactly how much electricity we’re going to need if we electrify everything,” Schlusser said. would mandate the state Department of Energy to by November 2025 that identifies the best ways to achieve the state’s climate mandates. The choices will determine not just the costs, but impacts on customers. “The key is to make (the transition) as economically efficient as possible, while also being equitable,” Schlusser said, “so we’re not just pushing all of these extra costs onto people who really can’t afford it. ” – Gosia Wozniacka; ; @gosiawozniacka.