Vuelta a España 2022 – Analysing the contenders

Vuelta a España 2022 – Analysing the contenders
With the start of the Vuelta a España less than a week away, the stage is set and the contenders for the overall title will have applied the finishing touches to their preparation ahead of the trip to Utrecht. However, one uncertainty hangs over the whole race. It is still not known whether Primož Roglič, winner of the past three editions of the Spanish Grand Tour, will even take to the start line given his last-minute comeback from his Tour de France injuries.
Roglič could be one of a number of Tour de France riders looking for redemption in Spain, while most others have had more breathing room after targeting the Giro d'Italia earlier in the year, including the champion Jai HIndley and indeed the other podium finishers in Richard Carapaz and Mikel Landa. One man, however, comes fresh into his first Grand Tour of the year and the second of his career, with Remco Evenepoel's showing in Spain sure to be one of the major talking points over the next three weeks. Here, Cyclingnews takes a look at the principal pretenders to the red jersey and picks apart their preparation and chances.
The ordering of riders does not necessarily reflect likelihood of overall success but rather is our barometer of form ahead of the start of the race. 1. Remco Evenepoel (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl) (Image credit: Getty Images Sport) Remco Evenepoel is 22 years old, has only ridden one Grand Tour, and didn't finish it.
Logic would suggest he's not a bona fide top favourite for the Vuelta, and that's exactly the line his entourage are trying to spin. And yet, expectation and excitement - some would say excessive amounts of both - have clung to him ever since his extraordinary rise as a junior just a few years ago. With a resounding victory at the recent Clásica San Sebastián, Evenepoel did little to dampen those expectations ahead of what is set to be a revelatory experience at the Vuelta.
He has been consistently compared to Eddy Merckx, while, somewhat incongruously, facing continual scepticism over his credentials as a three-week racer. How he handles the mountains and the pressure over the next few weeks will shape the future of one of the sport's most exciting talents, as well as the Grand Tour landscape itself. After a chastening Grand Tour debut in a 2021 season that came with the large caveat of his recovery from a pelvis fracture, Evenepoel has mixed swathes of brilliance in 2022 with flashes of inconsistency which have fuelled those Grand Tour doubts.
He has already won 11 times, often in dominant fashion, but the aura of invincibility has been cracked at top-level stage races like Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Suisse. Still, after recovering from Suisse, Evenepoel has been on a seemingly upward trajectory ahead of the Vuelta, with two big training camps completed either side of his San Sebastián victory. And it was that victory that earns him top spot on our form ranking (which is not necessarily a ranking of overall chances).
Whether he can back it up for 21 consecutive stages remains to be seen but, as he showed a couple of weekends ago in a field that contained a few of his Vuelta rivals, he can at times ride away from elite-level competition as if riding an entirely different race. 2. Simon Yates (BikeExchange-Jayco) (Image credit: Sprint Cycling Agency) The British rider looked to have been flying high but the gloss was taken off his pre-Vuelta form by Evenepoel's exhibition at San Sebastián.
He was the one who clung to the Belgian's wheel for longest but had to relent and perhaps paid the price as he slipped to sixth place, more than three minutes down. Prior to that, however, Yates had impressed on his comeback from the Giro d'Italia with three wins in four days, taking out the Ordiziako Klasika before a stage and the overall at the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon. Yates had a strong start to the year and looked a major favourite for the Giro when he won the stage 2 time trial, only to come down with a knee injury at another ill-fated appearance at the Italian Grand Tour, even if he fought back to win a stage.
Yates abandoned the Giro on stage 17 and, after his knee injury kept him out of the Tour de France, he has taken time to recover and get himself into the sort of shape that makes him a key contender for the red jersey. Yates won the Vuelta and holds all the keys to win again, with an explosive climbing style and improvements against the clock that have seen him win major time trials. His Vuelta win apart, he hasn't always managed - for one reason or another - to piece together the full three-week puzzle and managing his efforts, as well as staying injury and illness-free, might just be key.
3. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) (Image credit: Tim de Waele/Getty Images) The 24-year-old is another rider whose Giro started brightly but ended in disappointment, as he entered the final week third overall but soon left the race with COVID-19. Almeida, who has finished fifth in the UAE Tour, 8th in Paris-Nice, and 3rd at Volta a Catalunya this season, won the Portuguese road race title in June as he began his build-up to the Vuelta.
He didn't finish San Sebastián but did win the final stage of the Vuelta a Burgos, propelling him to second overall. Another rider on this list, Pavel Sivakov, may have won the race outright, but Almeida takes a higher spot on our list for his season's form and his victory on the Lagunas de Neila summit finish, arguably a truer test of raw form than the stage 3 finale where Sivakov managed to gain time. Almeida is an all-rounder who can time trial as well as climb, and he's growing in Grand Tour experience.
So far he's only done the Giro, enjoying his breakthrough in 2020 that saw him in pink for a long stint before slipping to fourth under the assault of Ineos Grenadiers and Tao Geoghegan Hart. Then last year he went in alongside Evenepoel at QuickStep in a slightly tense leadership duo and finished sixth overall. There is a strong sense that Almeida is a podium finisher - if not winner - in waiting and the Vuelta could well be that breakthrough moment.
4. Pavel Sivakov (Ineos Grenadiers) (Image credit: Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images) Sivakov might slip in just under Almeida but his victory in Burgos was no fluke. Indeed, he's been one of the standout riders of the past couple of weeks, also placing second at San Sebastián.
Richard Carapaz, former Giro winner and Vuelta runner-up, is Ineos' leading candidate in terms of pedigree but hasn't hit any high notes in recent races. The youngster Carlos Rodríguez has been tipped as a breakout star as he heads for his Grand Tour debut, but it's Sivakov who could prove to be the best plan-B or even co-leader for Ineos. The pair rode together in pursuit of Evenepoel at San Sebastián and Sivakov underlined his form at Burgos, which was the third stage race success of his career.
The foundations were laid with his long-range attack on stage 3 and he was distance but hung onto the overall crown at Lagunas de Neila. Sivakov was a dominant figure on the U23 circuit in 2017 and appeared to be on the cusp of a breakthrough in 2019, but hasn't had the smoothest couple of years. Still only 25, he has more potential and, if Carapaz should falter, the Vuelta could well be where we see it.
5. Miguel Ángel López (Astana Qazaqstan) (Image credit: Getty Images) The Colombian climber has had a rollercoaster career to date and he returns to the Vuelta after his extraordinary walk-out exit on the penultimate stage of last year's race, which saw his contract with Movistar terminated. Now back at Astana, there has been more turbulence, his Giro bid ending on stage 4 through a knee injury, and then his name appearing in an anti-doping investigation into a Spanish doctor.
López was provisionally suspended by his team but then reinstated because they were "not in a position to further deprive the rider of his contractual rights" given the lack of evidence at that point. López therefore returned to action at the Vuelta a Burgos, where he was pipped to the line at the summit of Lagunas de Neila by Almeida. Still, it was a strong climbing performance that netted him a place on the final podium and signalled his readiness for the Vuelta.
López remains a world-class climber who has won monumental stages at the Vuelta and Tour but his consistency has been thrown into question. Quite apart from his at-times disastrous time trialling, he has gone from six straight top-8 finishes in Grand Tours - including two podiums - to DNFs at his past four. 6.
Sergio Higuita (Bora-Hansgrohe) (Image credit: Bas Czerwinski/Getty Images) The diminutive Colombian had an eye-catching first few years as a professional but has taken a big stride forward this year after joining Bora-Hansgrohe. Previously more of a puncheur, he now has GC ambitions and is spoken about in serious terms as a leader for this Vuelta, even in a team that contains the current Giro d'Italia champion, Jai HIndley. Higuita, who finished 14th at the 2019 Vuelta on his Grand Tour debut, has had a storming season, winning the Volta a Catalunya and finishing runner-up at the Tour de Suisse.
He has also won stages at the Tour de Romandie, Volta ao Algarve, and Tour de Pologne, as well as clinching the Colombian title and placing fifth at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. The punchy nature of this Vuelta will suit him but sustaining a GC bid over three weeks is new terrain. What's more, time trialling is a notable weakness.
At Pologne, he was in the overall lead until he fell seventh places in the late 11. 8km time trial. The 30km stage 10 time trial at the Vuelta will therefore add to the question marks, but as it stands Higuita is a man in form and on an upward trajectory.
7. Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) (Image credit: Tim de Waele/Getty Images) Higuita might have the more eye-catching form of late, but Hindley is the more tried and trusted weapon in a Bora-Hansgrohe arsenal that also contains Wilco Kelderman and Emanuel Buchmann. They rival Ineos for the strongest team unit in the race and have already spoken about a multi-leader approach that could lead to creative racing tactics from the German squad.
Hindley had a year to forget after his breakthrough Giro podium in 2020 but has roared back this season and put himself among the pantheon of Grand Tour champions in Italy. His ability to stay the course once again stood out. There was little extravagance about his Giro victory but his disposal of Richard Carapaz on the final mountain of the race was nevertheless a stunning moment.
He has only returned from that triumph in the past fortnight, after a two-month absence from racing. He didn't finish the Clásica San Sebastián but did place 13th at Circuit Getxo and seventh overall at Vuelta a Burgos. Nothing spectacular but enough to suggest he's on the right track.
8. Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) (Image credit: Bas Czerwinski/Getty Images) The Ecuadorian is the highest-pedigree Grand Tour rider on the Vuelta start list. After winning the Giro in 2019, he has struck three podiums in three years with Ineos Grenadiers, one in each of the three-week races.
This year he went for the Giro and took pink into the final mountain stage, only to come undone on the steep upper pitches to the Passo Fedaia. It was a rare moment of real weakness, but Carapaz remains a composed and consistent Grand Tour campaigner with one of the strongest squads behind him. After a lengthy post-Giro break, he returned to racing at the end of July and start of August at the Tour de Pologne, where he rode to an anonymous 22nd place.
With the time trial the only truly decisive GC stage, Carapaz could afford a quiet week as his teammate Ethan Hayter led Ineos to the overall title. Still, he was far from convincing on the punchy finish on stage 3. Ineos set it up but he could only slip back as other riders surged up in the final 200 metres, with Higuita winning the stage.
Carapaz finished on the same time as that first batch of riders so there's no major cause for concern, but it may well be that he has to feel himself into the Vuelta. 9. Hugh Carthy (EF Education-EasyPost) (Image credit: Tim de Waele/Getty Images) The rangy British climber comes into the Vuelta with his GC chances slightly downgraded after a relatively disappointing 9th place at the Giro, due to a couple of bad days, particularly at the Blockhaus.
Since then he was part of the COVID-induced exodus at the Tour de Suisse before taking a break and building up for the second half of the season. He has raced the most out of anyone on this list, with nine race days since the Ordiziako Klasika on July 25. He hasn't set the world alight, with 31st there followed by 52nd overall at the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, a DNF at Circuito Getxo, and 23rd overall at Vuelta a Burgos.
But still, he was ninth on the final summit finish in Burgos, at least reminding people he was in the conversation. 10. Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) (Image credit: Getty Images Sport) The perennial Spanish hope and almost comedic and cult-status nearly man heads to the Vuelta on the back of his podium at the Giro - the second of a Grand Tour career that has also seen two fourth-placed finishes at the Tour de France.
Landa, though, has never hit those heights at his home Grand Tour. Not that he's had the chance to. Last year, which ended in heartbreak after an early crash, was his first appearance since 2015, the year of his breakthrough.
Landa's rollercoaster career of hope and disappointment has continued since then and he has always maintained he has a Grand Tour victory in him. Circumstances have often conspired against him but he had as clean a run as any at the Giro. He was rewarded with the podium but couldn't match Hindley or Carapaz to lay any real claim to the pink jersey.
Where that leaves his future prospects is, as ever, unclear. Landa returned to racing with 44th place at Burgos, way off the pace of many others on this list. And yet he and his fans will still believe.
The Tour de France comeback kings The riders so far on this list have all been able to showcase their form in recent weeks, but, as ever, the Vuelta start list is peppered with riders on the comeback trail from the Tour de France. A Grand Tour double is notoriously hard to negotiate, not least when you factor into the equation the the injuries or illnesses that led to many of their downfalls at the Tour. (Image credit: Getty Images Sport) 11.
Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma) Primož Roglič is head and shoulders the biggest name on the Vuelta's post-Tour question mark list. In fact, it's still up in the air whether he'll even be at the Vuelta. Roglič is the winner of the past three editions of the Spanish Grand Tour and has the chance to tie Roberto Heras for the record on four titles as well as becoming the first rider since Miguel Indurain to win a Grand Tour four times on the trot.
However, Roglič left the Tour on July 17 after 14 stages, his yellow jersey dreams ending on the unforgiving cobbled stage - or more specifically and cruelly, on an errant haybale. He fought on and helped lure Tadej Pogačar in